Dogecoin is bucking a long-standing resistance cluster as two prominent traders plot the next pivotal step. Cantonese Cat highlights a stubborn monthly Fibonacci ceiling at the 0.886 retracement, marked at $0.26633 on the chart, while top trader Kaleo (who leads the Synthetix Trading Challenge) points to thin pockets of liquidity on lower time frames, which he believes could allow for a “quick payback” of $0.25.
Long-term outlook on Dogecoin
In the monthly grid shared by Cantonese Cat, the main levels are clear. The main resistance for DOGE remains at the 0.886 retracement of $0.26633, just below the cycle base of 1.000, and is marked at $0.73905.
Support below the price lines up at the 0.786 retracement at $0.10879, followed by 0.707 at $0.05363 and 0.618 at $0.02417. The current monthly candlestick is hovering around $0.19-$0.20 with about 10 days left, and is trading within a price range of $0.10879-$0.26633 after an aggressive rally that took it to $0.786, which analysts called the “core of fraud.”
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His reading is that DOGE is “struggling to break above 0.886 forever” because a full break would be “incredibly bullish,” and he expects it to challenge that level again in Q4 2025.
The levels on the chart contextualize DOGE's multi-quarter structure. Since the 2021 crash, the price has respected the Fibonacci ladder and repeatedly orbited between the 0.707 and 0.886 bands. The failed push to $0.26633 and the quick rejection wick highlight how supply continues to reload on that ledge, while the sharp but short-lived penetration into the $0.10879 area confirms a decline in demand at the 0.786 handle without establishing acceptance below.
With the candle body congregating in the midrange and the tail testing the extremes, the pair is forming a high time frame equilibrium that is likely to be resolved on a breakdown to the monthly close of $0.26633 or towards $0.10879.
What do you need in the short term?
Kaleo's daytime view isolates paths that may force decisions on higher time frames. His 4-hour chart plots a downtrend line from local highs to successive lows, intersecting near the $0.20-$0.21 zone where DOGE is currently trading around $0.203-0.204.
The volume profile of the visible range shows a prominent node around $0.20-$0.21 and a notable pocket of low volume above it, running through the low $0.20s and toward the green supply band capping out around $0.25. “There's a lot of thin air left in the core of the market where it was a few weeks ago,” he said, referring to the vertical liquidations that pushed DOGE from the mid-$0.20s to below $0.12 and then rebounded.
Related article: Has the Dogecoin bull been run over? Analysts predict fallout in 2021
Technically, setting it up is easy. Retrieving the downtrend line and maintaining above the control point zone around $0.20-0.21, the price enters a low resistance void towards the previous distribution around $0.24-0.25. If the recovery fails, the red horizontal base area around ~$0.19 becomes the immediate pivot, and the extreme downside criterion from the “nucleus” still appears to be around mid-$0.15 until the monthly $0.786 of $0.10879 comes back into view.
The interaction between these charts is the crux. On the higher time frame, $0.26633 is the “last boss” that caused the price to flip repeatedly. In the shorter time frame, the route to retesting that wall would begin with a push to $0.25 through a low-volume corridor. A decisive monthly close above $0.26633 would turn the market's most important resistance level into support and move the conversation towards the 1.000 base at $0.73905, but according to the Cantonese cat's warning, that outcome is not confirmed in the current structure.
At the time of writing, DOGE was trading at $0.191.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart on TradingView.com
