XRP has regained key price levels and is testing resistance as the market heads towards what appears to be a decisive move. The price has accelerated from $1.41 at the time of the data snapshot to over $1.45 immediately after, and its momentum is attracting attention. However, XWIN Research Japan's analysis argues that the forces behind this move are different from those that have driven XRP's rise in the past, and the differences are worth understanding.
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The report identifies what is described as a rare structural difference. Most cryptocurrency markets are dominated by currency speculation. Trading volumes on centralized exchanges are typically 10, 20, and even 50 times higher than actual on-chain utilities. The assumption built into most cryptocurrency price analysis is that speculation is the engine and actual usage is the passenger.
For XRP, that ratio was compressed to 1.75. On-chain payment volume reaches 291 million XRP. The total amount of speculation is 510 million. The gap between casinos and infrastructure has largely been closed. And this is truly unusual in terms of how cryptocurrency markets typically operate.
This suggests that prices are not being pushed up by traders chasing momentum. Being pulled by adoption. This network is used at a scale that roughly matches the volume traded around it, and our analysis shows that everything changes about what the current price level means.
Network is active. The exchange is almost empty
The supporting data behind the speculation-to-utility ratio removes ambiguity as to what is driving the current XRP movement. Active addresses on the XRP Ledger reached 17,329 in the past 24 hours. This number is above the weekly average, confirming that participation in the network is truly growing and not just speculative volume inflating the numbers. Real accounts carry out actual transactions.
Next, we have Binance's inflows, which is the most prominent data point in the entire report. While 291 million XRP was settled on the blockchain through institutional transfers, OTC transactions, and storage transfers, only 1.36 million XRP flowed into Binance. Typically in markets where exchange inflows track or exceed on-chain activity, this ratio is now nearly reversed. The vast majority of XRP moving through the network is far from being on the sell side.
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This is a supply shock, and analysis is underway to address this issue. When coins are used for legal settlement and storage rather than deposited on exchanges for sale, the available liquid supply tightens with every transaction. There can be no selling pressure from coins that never arrive at the exchange.
The report's conclusions are direct. The price of $1.41 has not yet caught up with what on-chain data describes. The company claims that adjustments are still in the early stages and that the network is already working on making adjustments inevitable.
XRP stabilizes below key resistance
The higher timeframe structure of XRP indicates that the market is still in a correction phase but is starting to stabilize after a long period of decline. Following a mid-2025 peak above $3.50, the price has entered a sustained downtrend defined by consistent lows and breakdowns below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. This trend accelerated in early 2026, culminating in a sharp decline that briefly pushed XRP to around $1.20, with a spike in volume suggesting capitulation.
Since then, the price has moved into a consolidating range between about $1.30 and $1.50. This range forms just below the 200-day moving average, continues the downtrend, and serves as a key macro resistance level. The 50-day moving average has leveled off and is starting to curl upwards, reflecting improved short-term momentum, but a structural reversal has not yet been confirmed.
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After the capitulation event, volume has steadily decreased, indicating reduced participation and the market being in wait-and-see mode. The repeated defense of the $1.30 area indicates renewed demand, while the failure to break out of $1.50 highlights persistent overhead supply.
This compression is typically done before decompression. A confirmation above $1.50-1.60 would signal a move towards recovery, but a drop to $1.30 would likely restart the broader downtrend.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
