Chainlink has been struggling below $10 as selling pressure and broader market uncertainty have pinned the price below a resistance level that has limited any recovery attempts in recent weeks. While the price movement is frustrating, analyst MorenoDV's data has identified structural developments in the exchange flow data that reframe what the current weakness is actually against.
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Binance currently stores approximately 85.1 million LINKs worth approximately $766 million. This is equivalent to 66.4% of the 128.26 million LINK across all exchanges combined. This concentration is the first structural fact that changes how Binance-specific LINK flow data is interpreted. If two-thirds of all LINKs held by an exchange reside in one venue, extreme netflow days at that venue do not reflect broader market trends. These are imbalances specific to Binance and effectively set the supply tone for the entire LINK market.
The reserves charts studied by MorenoDV tell a clear and directional story over a multi-year time frame. Since the peak in 2022-2023, when Binance's reserves approached 145 million LINK, the holdings have followed a clear downward channel and are currently located near the lower limit of approximately 85 million LINK. The intermittent upward spikes seen in the data are real but temporary, and are bursts rather than trend reversals. The dominant behavior pattern throughout the period is for coins to leave the platform.
Netflow data supports the mechanisms behind that structural decline, and what it reveals about who is driving the links and why could significantly change the interpretation of the current price slump.
Inflow spikes are noise
The MorenoDV analysis draws a distinction that prevents intermittent inflow bursts from being incorrectly read as accumulation events. Positive netflow spikes in LINK's Binance data are concentrated around volatile periods, moments when prices are already volatile. And the patterns that follow are more consistent with the arrival of selling pressure than with the formation of genuine buying conviction.
Binance’s Chainlink Exchange Netflow |Source: CryptoQuant
A spike with high inflows is often followed by 1-3 days of weak closing prices rather than price strength. Interpreting the behavior is easy. Deposits arrive in advance of selling pressure or redistribution activity, rather than reflecting holders moving coins to exchanges for additional purchases. The timing of capital inflows relative to falling prices often confirms the direction of intent.
An important distinction established by the analysis is between inflow activity and accumulation. LINK is frequently deposited into Binance and withdrawn immediately afterwards. Rather than switching to exchange sales, move to self-custodial wallets or rival venues. The result is a pattern in which short-term incoming noise continues to be structurally lower above the reserve line. It is not concerned with temporary spikes that periodically interrupt the trend.
Binance’s structural decline was not caused by a single event or cluster of inflow bursts. This is a cumulative expression of a market where the dominant behavior (coins permanently flowing out of Binance) has persisted through temporary inflow surges without reversing the fundamental direction. That persistent tectonic outflow is the signal. Everything else is just noise on top.
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Chainlink stuck on critical long-term support
On the weekly time frame, Chainlink remains locked in a long-term downtrend, which has dictated most of its price action since highs near $30 in late 2024. LINK is currently trading around $9, and this level continues to serve as a key support zone repeatedly into 2025-2026. While sellers continue to dominate the overall structure, the chart suggests that the bears are struggling to force a decisive break below this area.
Chainlink consolidates around long-term support level | Source: LINKUSDT chart on TradingView
The most notable feature is the compression occurring around the $8.50 to $9.50 range. After a sharp decline from the $25 area, LINK spent several months building a base above support rather than continuing below it. This behavior often reflects a period of long-term equilibrium between buyers and sellers as the market searches for direction.
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However, the trend remains technically bearish. LINK is trading below its 50-week, 100-week, and 200-week moving averages, all of which continue to trend downward. The 50-week moving average near $14 and the 100-week moving average near $15.5 currently represent key resistance levels that bulls must recover to confirm a reversal of the structural trend.
For now, $8.50 remains the major support to watch. If this level is maintained, the long-term cumulative range potential remains intact. On the other hand, if we analyze the breakdown, the consolidated region in 2023 could be between $6 and $7. A return to $10.50 would be the first signal that buyers are regaining control.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
