Dogecoin is once again showing signs of weakness as the BTC pair plummets, dragging the price structure into bearish territory. With momentum weakening and major support levels broken, attention has shifted to confirmation of the USDT pair.
BTC pair breakdown causes bearish bias in Dogecoin
The latest analysis for Umer Crypto highlights a significant breakdown as the DOGE/BTC pair hits a 68-day low and breaks out of key support. Although the overall bias is firmly bearish, the USDT pair should still trigger a broad sell.
The BTC pair continues to show weakness. If it falls below 1.57%, it will be a 180-day low. Although the USDT pattern remains technically intact for now, the underlying vulnerability is obvious. Market participants are waiting for confirmation of a breakout of the current range to initiate short positions, with the main target set at the $0.07 area.
On-chain data recently showed that whales moved 327 million Dogecoin from Robinhood, sparking a 1% bailout rally to $0.092 at one point. Despite this local strength, momentum indicators remain weak across the board. Absent a significant catalyst such as Elon Musk's re-election or government-related initiatives, we expect a technical failure of the BTC pair to lead the way.
The subsidence of previous hype cycles suggests that the path of least resistance is down. Once USDT support officially expires, a move towards the 7 cent range is likely.
Elliott wave theory paints the whole picture
In a recent Dogecoin macro update, CG Trades pointed to an explosive rally in 2024, with Dogecoin surging nearly 500% from its lows, an overall 6x move, and an almost 5x rally from the identified weekly breakout entry. This move marked one of the strongest performances in the altcoin space during the cycle.
However, from December 2024 onwards, the momentum reversed sharply. Dogecoin is under pressure and is falling along with the broader altcoin market, consistent with previous warnings about a cooling phase after a euphoric rally.
When looking at the big picture through Elliott Wave Theory, the structure suggests a long-term cycle is unfolding. The first wave is expected to complete around the altcoin's peak in January 2018, followed by the second wave in March 2020 after a retest of the long-term trend line. The third wave peaked in May 2021 and the market has now completed the fourth wave in June 2022 or is still in its final stages near the key $0.061349 support zone.
From this perspective, the expected fifth wave could trigger a significant expansion, with a target expected around $1.41, potentially 15x from current levels and up to 23x if the price revisits the $0.061349 area before rising. However, a monthly close below that level would invalidate the bullish macro outlook and signal more serious structural changes.
