A US official described Iran’s recent response as a negotiating tactic, hinting that Trump might delay actions if a deal appears possible. The odds for a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1.1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago.
Market reaction remains subdued, with April 7 odds near zero. The April 15 market is at 6.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday, showing skepticism about a quick resolution. The April 30 market at 17.5% YES saw a slight uptick, indicating some traders see potential progress by then.
The biggest jump in odds occurs between April 30 and May 31, rising from 18% to 36%, suggesting traders expect any significant diplomatic movement in May. Current trading volume is $431,402 in USDC across these markets in the past 24 hours. Order book depth varies, with $40,093 needed to move the April 15 price 5 points, indicating strong resistance.
Despite the official’s comments, the market remains bearish on immediate progress. Traders are cautious of statements from a social media source with Tier 2 reliability. With a YES share at 1.1¢ for April 7, the payout is high, but so is the risk, requiring belief in a diplomatic breakthrough soon—a challenging prospect given the current situation.
Watch for any official announcements from Trump or intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. A formal talk schedule or softened rhetoric could significantly shift odds. Updates from the Pentagon or CENTCOM could also provide clarity.
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