To start this week, XRP price has fallen 4% and is nearly 50% below its all-time high. However, analysts expect one of the market's leading altcoins to rally significantly in January 2026, citing three major catalysts that could reshape the market outlook.
A big step towards broader access
Recently analysis24/7 Wall Street market expert Sam Daodu emphasized the importance of Vanguard's decision to approve trading of the XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Mr Daodu stressed that the real importance lies in facilitating distribution. Vanguard advisors can allocate XRP exposure through regulated ETFs without the need for additional cumbersome processes.
He pointed out that there are currently three interrelated factors at play. ETF investmentthe impact of Vanguard in reducing supply and changing its approach to assets.
Related books
In particular, the results of the token's exchange-traded fund launch have already been notable, with XRP inflows reaching $1 billion in the first four weeks of trading, making it one of the fastest-growing crypto ETFs ever launched.
Furthermore, the market supply of XRP has shrunk significantly, dropping by 45% from approximately 3.9 billion tokens at the beginning of 2025 to approximately 1.6 billion tokens by December.
This shrinkage is likely due to large holders refraining from distributing their tokens, leading to the accumulation of whale wallets and the removal of tokens from the liquidity market due to the following reasons: ETF storage.
This reduction in supply means that smaller inflows now have more influence. With only 1.6 billion tokens available on exchanges, investing $20-30 million in daily ETF purchases can have a significant impact on market supply.
Main factors for price increase
The launch of the Vanguard XRP ETF is particularly important in this context as it locks up the token. regulated storage vehicle Something that is unlikely to be sold frequently.
Unlike tokens that are held on exchanges and can be moved in and out at a moment's notice, ETF custody tends to encourage buy-and-hold strategies, fostering conditions for prices to gradually rise due to sustained institutional demand as available supply dwindles.
Given that the decision to provide access to ETFs was made at the end of the year, year-end trading is typically focused on maintaining existing allocations rather than creating new positions.
While ETFs increase the credibility of XRP without causing immediate price pressure, Journey to $3 valuation How soon by January will depend on how quickly advised funds are mobilized, the sustainability of supply compression, and overall market stability.
XRP price on track to $3
There are three potential scenarios for the future of XRP. The most optimistic scenario would see advisory funds moving faster than usual, perhaps allowing advisors to consolidate small XRP allocations during the January rebalance.
In this case, the XRP ETF inflow With supply locked up on exchanges, XRP price has climbed above $2.25, aiming for $2.60, supporting a price rally that could test $3 by the end of January, while potentially remaining in a solid $40 million to $60 million daily range.
Related books
The moderation perspective suggests more traditional institutional timing. In this scenario, while access to the XRP ETF will gain traction in December, actual allocations will increase gradually, potentially leading to daily inflows of approximately $20-30 million instead of the originally anticipated pace.
Here, XRP price may establish a higher low and break through the $2.25 mark. resistance Between $2.40 and $2.80. Price changes will be more focused on future adoption than immediate impact.
Considering these circumstances, it may take until the first or second quarter of 2026 for the XRP price to reach $3, rather than an immediate milestone, according to Daodu's conclusion.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
