Bitcoin’s momentum has slowed after hitting a new all-time high of over $124,000 last week. The cryptocurrency was then lower, and its prices slipped nearly 10% from its peak. At the time of writing, BTC has traded around $115,424, reflecting a 2.5% decline in the last 24 hours.
This retracement focuses attention on the activities and investors’ behavior on the chain, particularly among long-term holders (LTHS). Crypto analysts monitor realised profit and loss indicators to measure whether the current cycle is nearing its peak or whether there is a higher potential remaining. The data released by analysts shed light on how veteran owners are responding to Bitcoin’s latest rally.
Long-term holder trends across the market cycle
Cryptoquant contributor Pelinaypa shared an assessment of the realized profit and loss (RPL) metrics of long-term holders of Bitcoin. Analysts say the indicator has historically been reliable in signaling both the top and bottom of the cycle.
The analysis highlights important phases across multiple market cycles. In the bull market in 2017, we noticed that the surge in LTH coincided with the peak of Bitcoin. In contrast, in the 2018-2019 bare market, losses emerged reflecting the market bottom, but profit realizations slowed dramatically.
A similar pattern was observed in 2021, but it suggests that profit realization is more gradual, spreading across the market rather than focusing on short bursts.
When Bitcoin entered a slump between 2022-2023, we noticed a significant increase in losses as assets were categorized into the $15,000-20,000 range. That period was characterized by panic sales of long-term holders.
However, in the current market, Pelinaypa notes that while making profits, it remains moderate compared to its past peaks. This indicates that sales are occurring but have not yet reached levels normally associated with cycle top.
What current data suggests about Bitcoin
The current stage of medium profit realization suggests caution, but does not confirm that Bitcoin is on the top of the board. Pelinaypa explained it:
Historically, the sharp rise in LTH profit realization (big green spikes) coincides with the top bull market. Current sales (mid-2025) are measured and progressive. This means that BTC may be in the later stages of the bull cycle. If sales accelerate, they could hit the next peak.
This measured approach by long-term holders could mean that the market will retain room for additional upward movements if sales pressures are not strengthened.
At the same time, the data highlights that the transition to heavier profit acquisition is a critical warning signal for traders and institutions who are closely watching the market.
Analytics companies on the chain frequently point to the behavior of these long-term holders as a key indicator. Bitcoin’s price action continues to consolidate below record highs, but how these investors act in the coming weeks can set the tone for the next phase of the cycle.
For now, data suggests that the assembly has not yet reached conditions historically relevant to the decisive top, but market participants are encouraged to watch the realization of profits carefully.
Special images created with Dall-E, TradingView chart
