Long-term Bitcoin holders are selling at a loss, but the numbers show that this is becoming a pattern rather than an anomaly.
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US buyers are on the sidelines
Bitcoin's Coinbase Premium Index has remained negative in recent weeks, indicating that US investors have largely exited the market.
According to CryptoQuant, the difference in BTC prices between Coinbase and Binance reflects widespread reluctance among US buyers to return to current levels.
That hesitation shows up across multiple data points, from currency flows to the performance of investment products.
Global Bitcoin investment funds recorded net outflows of more than $190 million in the week ending March 27. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which attracted significant interest from institutional investors during their launch period, are currently underwater for many holders.
According to the data, the average cost basis for a spot Bitcoin ETF investor in the US is $83,400, well above today's price.
At the time of this report, Bitcoin was trading at around $66,820, approximately 47% below its all-time high of $126,000 set in October 2025. The price is also 24% below the year's opening price of $87,600, as BTC ended 2025 in the red.
Nearly 9 million BTC is in loss
According to Glassnode's on-chain data, nearly 9 million Bitcoins, or more than 40% of the total supply currently in circulation, are held by investors who paid more than the market value. The total unrealized loss from this supply would be approximately $598 billion.
Glassnode made a comparison to the situation last seen in the second quarter of 2022, one of the most painful conditions for Bitcoin in recent memory. At that time, approximately 3 million BTC had to change trading partners before the market regained its footing.
According to a report in Glassnode's latest Week On-chain newsletter, solving an oversupply of this magnitude has historically meant coins moving from loss-making sellers to new buyers willing to enter at a lower price.
As of now, demand has not kept up. Capriol Investments’ Bitcoin Apparent Demand Indicator recorded a reading of -1,623BTC on Thursday. This number has remained negative since mid-December 2025. CryptoQuant described the situation as a wide market distribution caused by continued selling by retail participants.
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Cracks begin to appear among long-term holders
Perhaps the sharpest signal in the data concerns investors who have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days. This group is usually considered the most enthusiastic segment of the market, but is currently selling at high rates and at a loss.
Glassnode reported realized losses for long-term holders amounted to $200 million, a level the company described as supporting an aggressive capitulation.
Featured images from Meta, charts from TradingView
