Bitcoin rose above $71,000 on news of a conditional ceasefire between the US and Iran following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Bitcoin rebounds…for now
According to today's QCP Market Color, after the ceasefire was announced, risk assets rebounded, stock prices rose, and crude oil cooled to the low $90s. However, the report warns that all this looks like a temporary pause rather than a permanent solution. Remember, according to President Donald Trump himself, the ceasefire depends on how Iran deals with the Strait of Hormuz in the coming weeks.
🚨 President Donald J. Trump issues statement on Iran: pic.twitter.com/9mqTayL0Q3
— White House (@WhiteHouse) April 7, 2026
Attacks on Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure show that détente remains fragile.
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This recovery is underpinned by risk repricing, not conviction. Depending on the color of the market, macro photography remains uneven. U.S. payrolls have rebounded, but weak labor data has left the Fed continuing to juggle growth concerns with energy-driven inflation. The next inflation report (CPI) released this week could determine whether Bitcoin's rally above $71,000 is sustainable or just a temporary rebound.
Options data from QCP shows compressed front-end volumes, but the downside skew remains a bid. Demand for hedging remains strong. Noteworthy call interest lies between $75,000 and $85,000, with support around $60,000 and $65,000, with $74,000 being a key breakout level.
Exchange Netflow shows why Bitcoin remains on the defensive
Despite the price rebound, CryptoQuant’s on-chain data shows that foreign exchange reserves remain at high levels, suggesting cautious sentiment rather than outright accumulation.
CryptoQuant's Novaque Research report explains that Binance currently holds approximately 637.6K BTC in reserves, while Coinbase Advanced holds approximately 866.6K BTC. Both remain well below their early 2025 levels.
Coinbase Bitcoin Trading Reserve. Source: CryptoQuant.
According to the report, the division between exchanges is important. Coinbase is more closely tied to US institutional flows, while Binance better reflects global cryptocurrency native liquidity. Coinbase's reserves remain tight and remain mostly flat after a long downward trend. This suggests that major players are not keen on selling their coins back on exchanges. Binance balances have recovered more visibly, but are still below all-time highs and below their 50-day average.
Binance Bitcoin Exchange Reserve. Source: CryptoQuant.
These signals suggest that positioning is cautious rather than surrendering. Holders are cautious, but they are not acting as if they have to release their Bitcoin at any price.
CryptoQuant believes that Exchange netflow supports that view. Overall exchange net flow is slightly negative at approximately -289.6 BTC, with a consistent outflow trend since February, only temporarily interrupted by a sharp spike in deposits. The analysis explains that genuine internal market breaks typically see sustained positive net flows as investors move coins onto the platform to sell weakness. Instead, the data still shows that Bitcoin is being withdrawn from exchanges in many sessions.
Bitcoin exchange netflow across all exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant.
While this does not automatically imply a bullish outcome, it does highlight that Bitcoin continues to be supported by a holder base that is more likely to remove supply than continue to recycle it into the market.
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summary
Bitcoin’s defensive setup reflects institutional hesitation. Traders may be waiting for obvious macro or volatility changes before committing new capital.
Short-term gains depend on headlines, not fundamentals. Unless the ceasefire holds and inflation eases, Bitcoin may struggle to break above $74,000 convincingly.
For traders, this means tight ranges and tactical play rather than full risk exposure, at least until the next macro signal.
Bitcoin rebounded earlier today, regaining $72,000. At the time of writing, BTC is trading in the low $71,000 range on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.
Perplexity cover image. BTCUSD chart on Tradingview.
