After falling to a multi-year low of $0.077 over the weekend, Dogecoin (DOGE) rallied on Monday with a modest rescue rally, rising to around $0.086.
However, as we were looking for clues as to where meme coins might go next, market analyst Ali Martinez released a technical update claiming that DOGE is at a “significant structural inflection point.” In his view, the next phase could follow one of two distinct paths, shaped by both higher timeframe chart patterns and on-chain activity.
Is the next macro expansion cycle?
Martinez said Dogecoin is currently supported by the broad demand base that has historically supported major macro expansion cycles. He framed this setup as more than just a short-term rebound and pointed to long-term structural behavior.
His analysis shows that since the early days of DOGE, assets have tended to move through long, multi-year consolidation channels, periods that compress volatility and effectively “transfer” supply over time. He argues that these stages typically occur before larger structural bull markets.
According to Martinez, Dogecoin is currently testing certain technology areas at $0.081, slightly lower than its current trading price. This level corresponds to the mid-low boundary of an active 5-year parallel channel.
The analyst emphasized that there is on-chain behind-the-scenes support for this major chart level. He mentioned the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), which tracks the exact price level at which a circulating token last moved.
Martinez explains that there is a large cluster around $0.081, where over 30 billion Dogecoin tokens last traded at roughly the same coordinates.
The result is a large concentration of historical exposure that often creates a psychological and economic “wall of defense” that makes it difficult for sellers to break through, he says.
Two scenarios for Dogecoin
In identifying the next major level to watch, Martinez highlighted the $0.081 level as an active area where the URPD volume cluster overlaps with the channel midrange. The second level is $0.058, which he calls the multi-year absolute channel floor.
He then outlined two scenarios for what would happen next. In scenario A, the $0.081 volume block continues to absorb market supply. If this support holds, Martinez believes the structure favors a more stable recovery and expansion toward higher channel goals.
Scenario B is more cautious. Martinez said if macroeconomic headwinds strengthen and Dogecoin closes below $0.081 on a weekly basis, the structure of the chart will shift to what he calls a secular valuation reset.
In that case, the token could be pushed towards the bottom of the macro channel and directly reach the $0.058 support floor (a multi-year level that he highlighted as the ultimate baseline), which would also mean a further 32% decline for the memecoin.
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