XRP is facing one of its most difficult phases in years, with price trends, on-chain data, and derivatives activity showing the market is under pressure.
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After weeks of steady decline, the token has now posted its steepest weekly decline since 2022, sparking renewed debate among analysts as to whether this decline signals the beginning of a deeper correction or the later stages of a broader market consolidation.
XRP is currently trading around the $1.33 to $1.36 range, down about 30% in the last month and more than 60% below its July 2025 peak of $3.65. The decline reflects overall weakness in the broader digital asset market, where risk appetite remains subdued amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
XRP price is trending down on the daily chart. Source: XRPUSD on Tradingview
A capitulation signal appears when losses spike
One of the most notable trends is the sharp rise in realized losses across the network. Investors have locked in losses of about $1.93 billion over the past week, the biggest jump in about 39 months, according to on-chain data. Realized losses occur when holders sell for less than their purchase price, often during panic sales.
Historically, similar events have coincided with capitulation phases in the market where short-term holders exit their positions and tokens move to long-term investors. A similar spike in 2022 was followed by a strong recovery several months later, but analysts caution that past performance does not guarantee a repeat.
Despite falling prices, trading activity increased. Spot trading volume exceeded $2.3 billion in 24 hours, with futures trading volume and open interest also increasing, suggesting traders are actively taking positions rather than exiting the market.
Key levels and “shakeout” stories
Technically, the $1.30 level is an important support zone. XRP briefly fell below it before recovering, indicating that buying interest is still present. However, analysts warn that a confirmed collapse could open the door to $1.20 or even the psychological $1.00 level.
Some market watchers argue that the current structure resembles an earlier consolidation phase that preceded the strong rally. According to this view, there is still a chance of further decline towards the $1.10 area as the market weeds out weak participants before a sustained rally begins.
Momentum indicators also reflect pressure. XRP continues to trade below its major moving averages and the relative strength index suggests an oversold situation, but no confirmed bullish reversal has formed yet.
Structural factors shift focus to Q2
Beyond short-term price trends, there is increasing focus on structural trends that could impact performance in the second half of 2026.
Analysts point to planned upgrades to the XRP Ledger aimed at improving regulatory clarity, institutional positioning, and support for tokenized assets, lending capabilities, and a compliant trading environment.
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Derivatives data adds another layer to the outlook. Despite falling prices, open interest is still rising, a pattern that has historically preceded expansionary phases as new capital enters the market.
Cover image is from ChatGPT, XRPUSD chart is from Tradingview
