Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s monthly RSI has slipped to 56.5, falling below its 12-month average (67.3) for the first time since 2022 and approaching the four-year average (58.7).
Historically, breaks below that long-term RSI trend have coincided with transitions from corrections into deeper bearish phases, as seen in 2018 and 2022.
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Bitcoin has declined by 20% over the past three months and by 10% year-over-year, and with the RSI falling below its long-term averages, the risk is growing that the pullback may develop into a more prolonged bearish period.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin’s RSI, which evaluates the strength of recent price movements to gauge whether the asset is overbought or oversold, currently sits at 56.5, below the 12-month average of 67.3 and close to the 4-year level of 58.7.
The analyst says that when the monthly RSI dips under the 4-year average, it often indicates that a routine correction may be turning into a deeper downward trend.
“In the 2018 and 2022 cycles, RSI breaking below this level often accompanied transitions into deeper bearish phases,” the analyst notes.
Bitcoin’s early-year strength has given way to softer momentum as investors rotate toward hard-asset hedges. Gold and silver have mounted marathon rallies through 2025, leaving Bitcoin lagging into year-end.
Silver has surged to about $72 per ounce, a 148% gain that pushed its market cap above $4 trillion. Gold has rallied nearly 70% and is tracking toward one of its best years on record.
