Bitcoin is currently trading above $80,000 as market bulls continue the rally from early April. However, the flagship cryptocurrency remains firmly in bear market territory, down about 37.5% from its all-time high. As the rally continues, cryptocurrency analyst Arales outlined the potential price trajectory for the remainder of 2026, highlighting the key macroeconomic and market catalysts that are likely to shape Bitcoin's next big move.
Bitcoin falls again, likely to hit cycle bottom in Q3
In his May 8th post, Arales shares an interesting prediction for Bitcoin price for the last eight months of 2026. Although the price has risen 13% in the last month, market experts predict that Bitcoin will eventually rise towards $60,000 by the end of this quarter. The projected price reversal is expected to coincide with a decline in the S&P 500 index below $6,000, indicating a deterioration or unfavorable macroeconomic environment. At this point, the market is expected to panic and investor sentiment will deteriorate sharply.
Market forecast until the end of 2026:
May to June:
– BTC Dollar falls towards $60,000 – S&P 500 below $6.8,000 – Panic takes over market
Q3:
– BTC forms cycle bottom + accumulation begins – New Fed chair + early rate cut signal – Cryptocurrency mistrust reaches peak level – S&P 500 below $5.9k… https://t.co/d7BkISInp9 pic.twitter.com/DuFVYPEvv3
— Arales
(@0xAralez) May 8, 2026
Going into the third quarter, Arales expects the sell-off to slow as long-term investors start adding to their holdings, a long-awaited bottom in the cycle. Nevertheless, general distrust towards Bitcoin still exists and sentiment is mostly negative. At the same time, incoming US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is expected to signal an early interest rate cut, which should boost macro confidence. Meanwhile, Arales expects the S&P 500 index to fall below $5,900, reinforcing the idea that broader financial markets may still be under pressure despite smart money quietly gaining ground.
Q4: A new cycle begins
Moving into the fourth quarter, Arales expects Bitcoin to break above $85,000 and decisively move into recovery territory as market momentum strengthens and the accumulation from the early stages begins to be reflected in price movements. This step is expected to coincide with the official start of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, indicating a clear easing of financial conditions and an overall improvement in liquidity across financial markets.
As confidence gradually recovers, the analysis suggests that a new market cycle has begun with new institutional investor participation and continued accumulation of risk assets. At the same time, the S&P 500 index is expected to stabilize around the 6,000 level, indicating that although stocks may recover to some extent, the broader macro environment remains in a cautious restructuring phase.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $80,416, reflecting a modest increase of 1.46% over the past hour.
