Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen to its lowest level in weeks and is attempting to regain significant levels as the market erases 2026 gains. Some market observers have warned that if volatility continues, a retest of November's lows is likely.
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Bitcoin loses major support
On Wednesday, Bitcoin continued its decline, hitting a three-week low of $87,263. The cryptocurrency has traded in a range of $90,000 to $96,000 since its breakout at the beginning of the year, hitting a two-month high of $97,924 a week ago.
However, the cryptocurrency market has experienced significant fluctuations in recent days due to renewed geopolitical tensions. As a result, BTC has retraced 10% over the past week, dropping to the mid-zone of the $84,000 to $94,000 range.
Amid this performance, the Trader wealth manager noted that the flagship cryptocurrency regained all of its gains in 2026, temporarily falling below its opening price and POC for the year. He added that it is important to maintain this level over the next few days, as losing this area could send prices back to the $80,000 range.
Analyst Crypto Gel highlighted a two-month bear-flag structure on BTC’s daily chart, suggesting a breakdown is likely. “Another loss of the current lows will put the bears back in the driver's seat for good,” he asserted.
Similarly, market observer Lyvo Crypto noted a similar formation, elaborating that Bitcoin broke from the pattern's upward support after the recent price action, losing its two-month uptrend.
For the trader, this indicates that “momentum is completely under the bears' control” and that “if[the bearish momentum]holds, we could see a free fall,” likely to retest the $78,000 area.
If prices break below November's lows, he advised, “From there, we would wait for confirmation of a double dip and look for a relief rally.”
Will BTC repeat 2020 price action?
Crypto Bullet drew parallels between BTC’s current price action and early 2022 performance. Analysts asserted that the current price action closely reflects the 2022 fractal, which could indicate a major correction is on the way.
At the time, Bitcoin had rebounded more than 40% from its late 2021 cycle high, followed by a “dead cat bounce” in early 2022 and a second major correction towards new lows.
Currently, the leading cryptocurrency has returned 30% from its October highs and is now trying to regain lost ground with similar performance. However, Crypto Bullet pointed out that there are two major differences with the 2022 fix.
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First, Bitcoin has yet to retest its 50-week and 200-week moving averages (MAs). Second, the timing suggests that the final breakdown is not expected until late in the first quarter.
“If we match the top of the 2022 fractal with the top of October 2025, we can see that there is still about a month of PA before it picks up the last bar and tests the 50-week moving average or the 200-day moving average,” he explained.
He concluded that another break above $100,000 is likely, but urged caution as key supports are being tested.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $89,890, up 1.2% on a daily basis.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com
